Five events have come and gone, but this week’s Super Smash Bros. Ultimate qualifier will be the most critical yet. Set in Japan, it will feature the highest quantity of worldwide ranked talent yet.
Five events have come and gone, but this week’s Super Smash Bros. Ultimate qualifier will be the most critical yet. Set in Japan, it will feature the highest quantity of worldwide ranked talent yet.
At just around ~215 attendees, this qualifier is significantly smaller than expected. Missing Japan’s #1 Sota “” Okata due to personal reasons, the event nonetheless features top talent, including Evo Japan winner Shuto “” Moriya, Kagaribi 3 winner Takumi “” Hirooka, and Umebura Japan Major winner Takuto “” Uno. All three players have also won stateside majors.
Unexpectedly, Japan will eventually compete offline in the East Asia Final against 8 players from Southeast Asia (officially classified as East Asia South,) meaning only 8 players - 6 in the main bracket, 2 from the last chance qualifier - will make it.
While the lower than expected attendee count makes this less of what would’ve likely been the most upset heavy event in Smash history, the potential for Japan’s many wifi-bound players to crack into the 8 slots is important.
Smashmate and the Army of Wifi Warriors
There is a certain prestige to Wifi Warrior-esque players in Japan that isn’t afforded as frequently to Western players. A Japanese equivalent of Anther’s Ladder, Smashmate, hosts a massively active player base that went from 6000-7000 players to twice that during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Divided into seasons, Smashmate is currently hosting its fourteenth season since Smash Ultimate began. It has been active since early in Smash for Wii U, and retains final season records from when it was referred to as Sumamate. Exact dates are not available, but the first full season ended with Tetsuhisa “” Kosaka in 1st, meaning it has likely been active since 2015.
While top ranks of Smashmate are an important indicator of online skill in Japan, the Tamisuma event series features a number of winners that do not appear on the Smashmate ladder, giving the online scene additional layers.
In the mix of Smashmate history is also “”, a celebrated wifi player from the lowly populated Tottori Prefecture, an arid subdivision of Chugoku noted for its desert. While also not attending Saturday, his status as an official top 50 player on the Fall 2019 Panda Global Rankings, as well as his top 60 all-time status of the Smash Wii U lifetime rankings indicates that a persistent presence in Smashmate’s top ladder is indicative of incredible skill.
One of the longtime top Smashmate players in attendance is a player by the tag of “”. He mained Little Mac in Super Smash Bros. for Wii U, but he is a Bowser main in Smash Ultimate who managed to defeat Kengo “” Suzuki offline at Kagaribi 3. He is a favorite to qualify, and potentially win the Japan Qualifier. If he's going to do it, as I'll detail below, he'll have to go through KEN once again.
Starting out on Smashmate, his breakout 4th during the 7th Smash for Wii U season gave him notoriety as a powerful player using unorthodox characters. In Smash Ultimate, he largely opts to attend the Tamisuma event series.
Gauging the Importance of Japan’s Wifi
With Smash Ultimate’s online undergoing massive amounts of scrutiny and criticism, there’s probably no shortage of people wondering if Japan’s Wifi Warriors are anything special. However, with Smashmate’s records, we can analyze this.
Because the points vary greatly based on seasonal attendance, I split Smashmate Ultimate’s seasons into three sections - Seasons 1-8, Seasons 9-10, and Seasons 11-13. Season 14 is currently ongoing, so it was not used.
For these sections, I applied the following requirements for players to be listed:
Seasons 1-8: 2050 (Tier 3,) 2100 (Tier 2,) or 2200+ (Tier 1.)
Seasons 9-10: 2150 (Tier 3), 2200 (Tier 2,) or 2250+ (Tier 1.)
Seasons 11-13: 2200 (Tier 3,), 2250 (Tier 2,) or 2300+ (Tier 1.)
Only seven players achieved a Tier 1 ranking. Four are offline players - Zackray, Shuton, Ron, and “”.The other 3 are wifi players - YB, “Waizeroshi”, and “Ta-San”. Notably, five out of seven players here have been ranked on either Panda Global Rankings or OrionRank at some point. Waizeroshi and Ta-San have not attended offline events.
In further digging, Yoshidora was an honorable mention on OrionRank Pre-Quarantine as a result of low attendance. Since then, he has won Sumabato SP 14 and placed 2nd at Sumabato SP 17. YB, while ranked on OrionRank Ultimate, is largely undersold as he has attended less than five offline events in Smash Ultimate’s history. During those events, he accrued six wins that would have been top 20 wins during the Spring 2019 PGRU season.
On the whole, twenty offline players achieved one of the three tiers on Smashmate. Of them, 10 are immediately ranked as at least an honorable mention on global rankings, 4 lack significant data against primary Japanese regions, and one—“”—is unranked. However, he won Maesuma TOP 4, the second most significant offline event since the COVID-19 Pandemic began.
Four are unranked globally, but two—“” and “”—are ranked on the most recent iteration of Japan’s Top 100, and Chubu Snake player “Sidarezakura” would be ranked on any Japanese ranking taking the last fourteen months into account.
While it can’t be definitively proven without a large amount of offline attendance, it appears that the prestige offered to the upper echelon of Japan’s Wifi Warriors is warranted.
This is especially true when taking all of Japan’s wifi scene into account, as Smashmate’s upper tiers don’t include two important wifi-bound attendees at this event. One is HERO, and the other is “”, a Tamisuma-attending Young Link player who defeated Japanese titan Toshimasa “” Hayakawa at Kagaribi 3.
A Road from Kyushu
While most of the readership will be familiar with Shuton, it bears noting that he is fairly exceptional among his region. Kyushu, one of the nine (or ten) regions of Japan, has been home to several top players. Deep into Smash Wii U, it was likely the 4th best region in the country. By Smash Ultimate, many of their best players retired or moved to Kanto or Kansai, or simply didn’t travel.
“HIDE”, not to be confused with fellow Kyushu Wolf player “Hide”, is in attendance. Ranked 78th in Japan and 3rd on the unofficial Kyushu power ranking, he is a potential favorite to prove Kyushu’s ability in the Japanese scene. His first test was against Yuta “” Uejima, whom he defeated with Pac-Man.
Kanto vs. Kansai
Traditionally, Kanto has been considered Japan’s strongest region and is often ranked #1 worldwide. After a year of COVID-19, however, Kansai has emerged as a candidate for best active region. At Kanto major Kagaribi 3, the top 3 - Tea, Towa “” Kuriyama, and “” - formed an unexpected Kansai sweep not seen since the early Smash for Wii U era.
In the aftermath of day 1, Kanto came out on top at seven players to Kansai’s five.
Everything on the Line: Saturday's Matchup Previews
With Japan as Smash’s second best country and only eight slots up for grabs, it wasn’t surprising that day 1’s qualifier sets were nothing short of chaotic. Only six out of sixteen players performed as seeded through pools, and only two of those managed to make that extra step into Winners Quarters.
Winners Side Matchups
The first set of the day will be Gakuto “” Ito vs. “.” Gackt, a Ness main who became internationally known after his performance at Smash for Wii U event The Big House 7, has retained relevance ever since 2017. With a peak ranking of 29th on the Fall PGRU, he is a favorite moving forward after the bracket splintered itself into pieces.
Harasen is lesser known. Upsetting Bowser main HERO in a close 3-2 set, Harasen is the best of Japan’s many Ice Climber mains, known for very high technical skill. Gackt is favored between the two, but a remote chance of an upset exists here.
Set two will be “Kuroponzu” vs. “.” While most remember ProtoBanham for his emphatic performance at Evo 2019, things have changed. Once the best Lucina main worldwide, ProtoBanham has progressively shifted into using Min Min, both offline & online. At Tohoku regional TSC13, he placed 1st with Min Min.
Kuroponzu is a name few, if any, will recognize. One of Smashmate’s best players, he is one of Japan’s many formidable R.O.B. players. Given his bracket did not include any major wins outside of “” (best known as the Peach who upset Leonardo “” Lopez Perez at Umebura Japan Major), he isn’t considered a favorite—but R.O.B. players have commonly outpaced expectations during this circuit.
The third set will feature Shuton against “Showers”. Showers, one of Japan’s many remaining Inkling mains, managed to defeat top 100 Japan ranked “” and fellow top 16 player Nukoeru. He is considered proficient with his character, but Shuton will likely have a major advantage going into this set.
The last winners side set tomorrow will be one of the more exciting ones for fans of hidden boss players. The aforementioned Kyushu Wolf player HIDE will be fighting against longtime Smashmate top ladder player “Omuatu”, a Min Min from Chugoku. With neither Kyushu nor Chugoku seeing much travel, this is an effective tossup set. Based on Omuatu’s repeated appearance on the top of Smashmate, I might give a slight advantage to him.
Losers Side Matchups
With as many upsets as one might expect for a Japanese online event, Losers bracket promises many well-known names. The first set of losers is a recent Kagaribi 3 rematch between KEN and HERO. KEN, the top ranked Sonic main in the world, was able to beat Tea in the losers bracket 3-1. However, his last outing against HERO was a lopsided 0-3.
Given HERO’s dominance at the Tamisuma series and his last offline set, he’s probably favored here. However, KEN is one of the game’s most capable and at times dominant players, holding a positive record on MkLeo.
The second loser’s bracket set will feature Greninja main “” against Kansai Cloud main “.” Lea is already quite well known for his lengthy loser’s bracket run at 2GG: Kongo Saga, where he notably defeated Robert “” Herrin, Shuton, and Samuel “” Buzby, in a run that critically ensured his top 25 rank on the Fall 2019 PGRU.
Masashi is one of the game’s oldest active notable players. In his mid-30s, Masashi got his start as Japan’s best player in the early 2000s at Super Smash Bros. Melee, and retained his status as a top competitive player all the way through Smash Ultimate. While his records vary greatly depending on the year, he managed to beat Tomoki “” Ikeda and Kameme during the first day of qualifiers.
Lea is favored between the two, but Masashi’s win on Kameme shows he can absolutely defeat some of Kanto’s best talent.
For the penultimate set, we have “Piro” against Nukoeru. Nukoeru’s recent ascension has made him one of the better active Young Links, but Piro—a Smashmate-ranked Pikachu main— ran through top seed “Rido”, long time Game & Watch aficionado “”, and most critically Kameme.
Most would have likely favored Yuta “” Kawamura or Yuki “” Kajihara to be the spotlight players, but Piro instead ran far ahead of his fellow Pikachu mains and now stands against what may be a top three Young Link main worldwide. Nukoeru is favored based on his recent performances, but this may be Piro’s breakout event.
Both are masters of their characters, with each having a slew of achievements and wins. ZAKI is probably best remembered for his stellar win record against sword-like characters that culminated in a Smash Wii U win on MKLeo, but he also has performed exceptionally in Smash Ultimate.
Tsumusuto’s rise to prominence is more recent. In particular, he placed 2nd at Sumabato SP 13, the best result a Dr. Mario has ever achieved at a significant regional event in Smash Ultimate. With these two players being similarly skilled and playing niche low tiers, the outcome is hard to predict.
This set of sixteen players isn’t what anybody expected, but it was inevitable that any top 16 was going to look off the wall given Japan’s massive base of talent. Featuring a diverse set of regions & characters, this will test a lot of historically incredible offline players against the new wave of Smashmate wifi warriors.
Eight slots for the East Asia South qualifier are on the line. With two occurring in the Last Chance Qualifier, it’s possible none of the players mentioned could sneak in - but six of the ones mentioned above will be qualifying at tonight’s conclusion to the Japan Qualifier.
Joshua “Barnard’s Loop” Craig is an amateur data collector & analyst involved in Super Smash Bros. statistics since late 2015. His most notable work is his co-ran algorithm, OrionRank. Follow him on Twitter @LoopBarnard.
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