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NA West Regional Finals Preview

By Joshua "Barnard's Loop" Craig | 10/09/21

During the first part of May, the western portions of America & Canada - titled “NA Southwest” and “NA Northwest” - had their online qualifier events. Eight players from each event emerged. Today, sixteen players will compete in the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate NA West finals, where six will move onto the December Finals.

Due to the event being held in MDVA (Maryland/Virginia,) we’ve seen five cancellations from the initial batch of qualified players. Despite that, all sixteen players competing are from NA West defined on the map below. 
NA West regional map. Click to expand.

North America Northwest 

Encompassing the Pacific Northwest, portions of the Prairies region of Canada, Alaska, and half of the Heartland Midwest, the Northwest Region emerged as a competitive area in the online qualifier segment. After replacements, the area comprises nine of today’s competitors, with a plurality from Washington state. 

North America Southwest 

Featuring talent beds in both California and Texas, NA Southwest shaped up as one of the more competitive online qualifiers, ultimately anchored by California. Kansas, an unusual inclusion to the Southwest, notably suffered from being split from Missouri, which it shares a scene with due to Kansas City’s far-eastern location within the state. Ultimately, the region features seven of today’s competitors. 

Pool 1 

Tanner Jordan
Young Link
- Nebraska 
Troy Waters
Jigglypuff
- Arizona 
Min Min
- Washington 
Jonas Ashby
Toon Link
- Washington 
SKITTLES!! is the first seed in Pool 1. Hailing from Nebraska, he was the winner of the online NA Northwest qualifier. Initially a constant in Midwestern events, SKITTLES!! emerged as a top Wifi player during the quarantine era as part of the increasingly powerful Heartland state. 
Ranked 8th on the Wifi Warrior Ranking v7, SKITTLES!! Performed well at the Texas major Low Tide City with a win over Floridian Young Link Murray
Young Link
. At Riptide, he placed 33rd, but defeated Santiago Perez
Palutena
.
BassMage, one of Arizona’s top players, has emerged as the best Jigglypuff player in the world after a spirited and unprecedented run at Low Tide City. Initially impressing with an unexpected win over Kolawole Aideyan
Roy
at Riptide before placing 49th, he went on to be the first Jigglypuff to place Top 16 at a supermajor in Smash Ultimate three weeks later at Low Tide City. . 
Despite an early loss to , he defeated multiple top players out of Texas before achieving crown jewel wins of Javier Perez
Wolf
Lucina
, Rao
Wii Fit Trainer
, and Spencer Garner.
Ness
. With these wins in mind, pool 1’s top seed could be a very competitive position. 
Justice, one of several Washington players in attendance, is the event’s sole Min Min. Unranked in Washington, Justice made his name known during the Wifi era with wins over fellow Washington competitors and wins over notable Latin American players Chag and Kevin Rossel.
Mii Gunner
 
JoJoDaHobo, the first replacement player, is a contender for the best Toon Link player in the United States. While occasionally struggling at major events, he performs well locally, notably being a regular top 8 appearance at the Washington-held biweekly Orbitar series. Notably, he holds a 2-4 record to Justice in offline sets. 

Pool 2

Scend
Ness
- Utah 
Dor Goldreich
Zero Suit Samus
- Alberta 
Larry Holland
Falco
Wolf
- Southern California
Cody Tact
Robin
- Alaska
Scend, Utah’s sole representative at the event, is coming off of a solid performance of 17th at Low Tide City. After an uncharacteristic flub at Riptide, Scend - formerly “BestNess” - has performed well locally and secured a #1 position on the recently released Utah Power Rankings. Here, he’s the first seed of pool two and the first top 50 ranked player noted at the event so far.
A favorite to win his pool, he holds a 3-1 record over Larry Lurr. While lacking records against the other two players in his pool, it seems like a difficult task to dethrone the Southwestern Ness champion in pools. 
Exodia, Alberta’s sole representative and the only Canadian player present, is a highly skilled Zero Suit Samus main. With the location of Alberta, major opportunities are scarce for the dominant Canadian player. He has notably never attended a major event in Smash Ultimate, opting instead for Prairie Canada or British Columbian regional events, which he often does exceptionally well at. 
Despite scarce out-of-region data, Exodia has won seven of his last offline events over top Albertan talent, collecting an impressive total of 25+ tournament wins, including two PGR events - Animethon 26, and Salt Flats 2020. 
Larry Lurr requires little introduction. From the Super Smash Bros Brawl era onwards, Larry Lurr has been a constant fixture in SoCal and regularly considered a top player from the region. While his results in Smash Ultimate have slowed, he remains an innovator and active Falco & Wolf player, and is unafraid to flash a pocket Mii Brawler. 
While he holds a losing record to the pool’s top seed, he recently impressed with a run to 9th at Glitch 8.5, a post-Quarantine major event where he defeated
Ness
and Noah McCulley
Joker
Zero Suit Samus
and placed 9th. This run in mind, he could be an unexpected threat.
While the pool has largely been filled with well-known players, it rounds out with Alaskan Robin player Codex. Despite hailing from an isolated region, Alaska is very active - hosting four active power rankings. Ranked second in Anchorage, he is a total unknown walking into the event, only having a lukewarm EVO result out-of-region on his record. 
His most notably achievement was winning the Alaskan regional event MTA eUnlimited BYTE, a 128 entrant event held in a suburb of Anchorage. Robin is a relatively uncommon character, bringing another wildcard layer to his attendance. 

Pool 3

Sierra Luna
Pokémon Trainer
Wolf
- Washington
Jestise Negron
Snake
- Las Vegas 
Reyhan Ticehurst
Mario
- Washington 
Ronnie Knighten
Snake
- Texas
Moxi - formerly “Pandarian” - is the top seed in this pool. Best known for her Pokemon Trainer, moxi has increasingly opted to use more Wolf, experimenting with the character in a few Washington regional events. At Riptide, she placed top 32, defeating Dominic
Richter
Carone and Wilhite. 
While her local results have been mixed, her most serious event was undeniably a return to form after some flubs towards the end of Smash UItimate’s pre-Quarantine period. With these strong wins in mind, she is a favorite to make it out winners side. 
MVD, a longtime Snake player and Smash veteran, recently placed an impressive 9th at Low Tide City with wins over Alexis Stennett
Roy
,
R.O.B.
, and Rasheen Rose.
Mario
since moving from Oklahoma to Las Vegas, MVD has also been one of Nevada’s premier players, and remains the best solo Snake main in the United States, as well as a contender for best Snake worldwide. 
For set records, MVD’s holds a single loss to Moxi at Super Smash Con 2019. Moxi is favored, but both carry similar win profiles & records. While not having a record versus Ludo, MVD is still favored, as he has shown to be very proficient at the Mario matchup with a winning record over Dark Wizzy. 
Ludo, the last Washington player to note, is the Pacific Northwest’s best Mario player. Coming just shy of qualifying outright for the NA West finals online, Ludo was brought in as one of five replacements. His last major - Riptide - saw a rough bracket, with him taking losses to Pedro Alonso
Mario
and Troy Wells
Pokémon Trainer
to place 129th. 
This is mind, he is a strong local performer, winning Orbitar 87 over JoJoDaHobo and Justice, two players in above pools. Should he run into them in bracket, he’d likely be favored, enhancing his chances of making it farther in bracket. Among his pool, he holds a 4-16 record against Moxi. 
Lastly in this pool, we have another replacement player, this time from Texas. Ronnichu, another Snake main, is a recent upstart in Texas. Hailing from Southeast Texas, he, like Ludo, came just shy of qualifying for the event at the Last Chance Qualifier.
Active at recent regional events in Texas, he unexpectedly made a run at Riptide that included wins over BassMage, Toriano Warren Jr
Young Link
, and James Wade.
Diddy Kong
While not following this up at Low Tide City in terms of wins, he placed 33rd to Leonardo Perez
Byleth
Joker
and BigBoss, an admirable set of losses. 
With solid in-region results at Heartbeat backed by two solid major performances, Ronnichu is set to be a major wildcard. 

Pool 4

Younessi
Luigi
- Southern California 
DomWilliams
R.O.B.
- Oregon 
T3 DOM
Richter
- Southern California 
Haugen
Mii Sword Fighter
- North Dakota 
For the final pool, we shift to a direct focus on SoCal. Starting with the runner-up of the NA Southwest Qualifier, we have Kiyarash. One of SoCal’s top Luigi mains, Kiyarash emerged in the Wifi era as a strong Luigi, eventually ending the era at 35th on the WWRv7. 
Offline, his record is more mixed, with several quality wins on top SoCal players, peaking with a win on Dustin ” Rice
Mario
at the Goomba Stomping Saturdays series. At his most recent event, he defeated
Palutena
and Jalani Thompson
Palutena
. His only record in this pool offline is against T3 DOM, whom he has lost to once. 
Domnique is the sole player from Oregon in attendance. A top 5 player in his state, he - like many players here - emerged more prominently in the Wifi Era. After the return of offline events, though, he quickly stacked up a series of local event wins and eventually placed 7th at the Oregon regional Back in Blood. 
With limited set data outside of Oregon to work with, Domnique is a solid wildcard pick, piloting R.O.B. at a time when the character’s fortunes couldn’t seem much better. 
T3 DOM, despite being only the 3rd seed in this pool, is favored to win it. Ranked 3rd in SoCal, he is likely the best Belmont player in the world at the moment, placing 4th at Summit Qualifier event MSM 240 and running up MSM 242 - the final MSM for the foreseeable future.
At Riptide, T3 DOM unexpectedly took a set loss to Floridian G&W player
Mr. Game and Watch
, but rode through losers until losing to Moxi, a set loss that could come into play during the bracket phase. He also has a potentially relevant 3-2 record against Larry Lurr. Despite being likely to clean his pool up, DOM's main bracket could be a struggle. 
Finally, we end on Erik, a North Dakota Mii Swordfighter main. Despite the character’s near nonexistence in Smash for Wii U, Mii Swordfighter is locked in for two appearances at this circuit, the other player being in Oceania. 
Erik - a contender for best Mii Swordfighter in the states - is coming off of a deceptively good Riptide, where he lost to Julian Carrington
Diddy Kong
and Puppeh in order to place 97th, whilst beating Leon Green
Sonic
. While ranked low on his state PR, it’s likelyhe’d be near the top on an updated Power Ranking, placing him as a strong player in an obscure region piloting an unusual character. Like with Codex above, he’s a wildcard, though his recent major performance hints at something strong. 

Conclusion 

NA West encompasses a diverse area, but has primarily pitted SoCal, the Pacific Northwest, and the proper Southwest against each other for six slots in December, with a few outlying areas vying for spots. 
Pools 1 and 3 seem to have fairly likely conclusions, with their top two seeds likely moving onto winners with ease, while Pool 2 introduces a three-way fight between Larry Lurr, Scend, and Exodia, with Exodia as a significant & rarely seen wildcard. 
Lastly, Pool 4 has a likely winner, but all bets are off for the other player who will exit in winners. 
Featuring unique regions and a lot of unlikely players, this qualifier has the opportunity to be the most unpredictable once the main bracket begins depending on set composition, as pool runner-ups otherwise favored could get locked into ugly brackets, allowing some wildcards to slip into the December Finals.
The event begins at 12:00 PM PST. 
Joshua “Barnard’s Loop” Craig is an amateur data collector & analyst involved in Super Smash Bros. statistics since late 2015. His most notable work is his co-ran algorithm, OrionRank. Follow him on Twitter @LoopBarnard.
Banner mural designs courtesy @ElevenZM and @MuralAltDrive.