Click to expand. It's almost literally in 4K, so you'll have to.
Today, I want to highlight one specific section of this graph that didn't get much coverage in the video itself. To do that, let's remove some of the clutter:
Of players with at least eight reverse 3-0s in our database, Shuton and Tweek were the only other players besides Leo we could find to ever have a 50% or better reverse 3-0 rate at any time in their Ultimate careers -- yes, that means nobody else went even 1-1 or 2-2 in their first two or four chances at the reverse 3-0. A few points are marked on the chart; I'll refer to these later in the article.
A few sets later, Tweek found himself up against MkLeo for the first time Ultimate in Winners Finals, and after his Donkey Kong failed to do anything against MkLeo's Ike, the Wario lost game two and then proceeded to not just reverse 3-0 MkLeo but triple two-stock him.
Tweek wouldn't complete another recorded reverse 3-0 for nearly a full year. After falling nine straight times after going down 0-2, at Glitch 8's Winners Finals, Tweek was able to turn the tides against Dark Wizzy, leaving his pre-quarantine reverse 3-0 success rate at 14.2 (2/14).
None of this is meant to downplay the accomplishments or abilities of Tweek and Shuton, but rather to show just how far MkLeo is from even his closest contenders. Cosmos, in green, is another great example. Cosmos is one of just three active players to reach three recorded reverse 3-0s prior to quarantine, joining Leo and Tweek. He has been one of the clutchest players in the game. His reverse 3-0s are represented by Points C.
And yet he is nowhere near Leo's level by this metric. His peak reverse 3-0 rate came after he achieved his third recorded major reverse 3-0, in Losers Quarterfinals against Dabuz at Glitch 8 in January 2020, where he switched from Inkling to Corrin to pull the reverse sweep. That put Cosmos's recorded reverse 3-0 rate at 23%, the highest it would ever get.
With Leo's stats, even though we don't have game-by-game data for every single Best-of-5 he's played, even at PGRU events, we were able to cobble together what little Smash.gg was missing via VoDs. Leo really doesn't go down 0-2 that often, and when he does, it's streamed. That's not the case with the rest of these players. At most offline tournaments, Best-of-5 sets begin well before Top 8, but streamed matches are often the only ones where data is recorded, which typically misses a huge portion of losers bracket. So I accounted for that with the huge peaks at the end of the graph, represented at Points D.
We do have the game counts for all of their best-of-5 sets in the database, so we can at least look at all 3-2 sets, which are the only ones that could possibly have been reverse 3-0s. Tweek has won eight other sets by a 3-2 count; Shuton has won seven; Cosmos has won nine. Even if we were to assume each and every single one of these 24 sets were reverse 3-0s, these three players would all still have reverse 3-0 success rates worse than Leo's current 57.8% mark:
Cosmos: 3/19 recorded -> 12/28 = 42.9%
Tweek: 2/14 recorded -> 10/22 = 45.4%
Shuton: 2/10 recorded -> 9/17 = 52.9%
Even with the most generous possible assumptions, Shuton remains about five percent shy of Leo's legendary level; the other two don't even break the 50 percent mark.
Another way to put this into perspective: to reach the measured average rate of reverse 3-0s prior to the pandemic, 11.7 percent, MkLeo would need to lose his next 75 sets in a row when going down 0-2.
No matter how the rest of Ultimate's competitive history writes itself, MkLeo's reverse 3-0s will always stand out as the most eye-popping phenomenon in the game, and possibly in esports at large. Whatever the game count, whoever you are: If you're playing against MkLeo, it's your back that's against the wall.