This year, Kagaribi emerged as the new premier major series in Kanto. While the EGS Cup and Umebura seem to be on hiatus for the time being, tonight’s Kagaribi is equivalent to any Umebura event from late 2019. Featuring Kanto’s best and a glut of Kansai and Chubu players, it’s a meeting of Japan’s three strongest regions.
Capped at 520 entrants, it is the largest Japanese event since EVO Japan 2020. Like Kagaribi 4, it is also a two-day event, and it - unlike the vast majority of events - is best of five from start to finish.
His extensions offstage with Min Min are well established and quite deadly, while his Lucina features the most efficient movement & spacing of the character seen to date. ProtoBanham, while not invincible, is the clear favorite to take the event, as his only event losses have been at lower stakes locals.
Shuton, no stranger to being considered the best in Japan, has recently picked up the Aegis to supplement Olimar. His bracket, while potentially challenging, does feature a streak of luck: His Winners Quarters opponent is projected to be Tea. With sixteen sets played, Shuton is 13-3 on Tea. Looking forward, an upset on Tea would likely make his Winners Semis opponent Zackray, whom he beat recently.
In 2020, something clicked. While events slowed to a crawl, Atelier continued to attend them. By the time the country held large regionals and major events, he quickly became established as a potential major winning threat. Sporting suffocating and technical play as Pokemon Trainer, he’s made his case as the best player of the character in the world, sticking with them even as the character has seen less usage since events restarted.
At Kagaribi 4 and Maesuma Top 6, Atelier came within striking distance - a single set, both times starting in winners side of Grands - from taking a major. Now, fighting against Japan’s absolute best in full force, he’ll have to come up with a way to overcome his losing records against ProtoBanham and Tea in order to take the event and make his case as a top 10 contender.
Despite this, he does have issues reaching deep into the bracket. After his shock win over Zackray to place 3rd at Kagaribi 3, Akakikusu’s biggest bracket run was the Kanto monthly Dawn, which he won. He does consistently make it deep into bracket, but he is projected to lose to KEN - a player he’s fought and lost to once. Should he make an upset, he’ll rematch Zackray, which could be his golden opportunity to get into the winners side of top 8.
However, this would pale in comparison to his emergence as a top player in the country outright with back-to-back major runs at Kagaribi 4 and Maesuma Top 6. At the latter, he notably defeated Shuton and Tea - two serious contenders to take majors - and lost only ProtoBanham and Atelier, the top two finishers.
This in mind, Yoshidora has an outside chance to win the event, and put Yoshi on the map as a major winning character for the first time. While the spot of best Yoshi is contentious, another high level performance from Yoshidora would put him in the lead.
However, this isn’t the first time KEN’s seen a temporary slump and ultimately emerged a champion. In late 2020, KEN took Kagaribi 1 in seemingly effortless fashion, and he has seen success at the WINNER weekly series, as well as a good performance at European supermajor event Temple.
As a result, KEN could simply slide past his slump and emerge as a serious contender to take the event. While not especially likely, it seems inevitable that he will eventually return to the peak seen in late 2019 where he came just shy of taking events similarly as stacked as this.
While the number of players competing for first is limited, this event is a gathering of serious worldwide ranked threats. Players such as Choco and Gackt have been noted, but many more exist waiting in the wings.
HIKARU has brought Roy to Japan in a way that hasn’t been seen before. Initially trying his hand at a variety of characters, his settling on Roy and his former main Donkey Kong has seen considerable success, placing top 8 at Maesuma TOP 6.
Lea is generally an underseeded and underrated player. While rarely breaking into top 4s on brackets, he often makes significant upsets and tears through top players in his path. Most well known for an incredible run at 2GG: Kongo Saga - where he defeated all three top Olimar players to place Top 8 - Lea is also accomplished in Japan.
At Kagaribi 4, he defeated Gackt and KEN. However, he did lose to Yoshidora - who happens to be his round 1 opponent in Top 96. An upset would likely see him facing against Kome for the first time.
As of 2021, Kameme rode the recent Sheik wave and picked her up. He was extremely proficient with her in Smash for Wii U, and remains a skilled Sheik main in Smash Ultimate. However, he’s also added Sephiroth to his list of characters - resulting in a large list resembling a character crisis that has translated to several underperformances.
Despite this, Kameme is a historied player with multiple major wins under his belt. As the final player noted in this piece, he is capable of taking the event and revitalizing his status as one of Japan’s top players.
The list of possibilities at this event are nearly endless, as over two dozen players have legacies built in the past or present that make them capable of turning the bracket upside down. It isn’t implausible that half of the top 8 features players outside of the first few I mentioned, replaced with new threats and hidden bosses.
Despite a tendency towards upsets, however, a decent chunk of bracket tends to go to expectations - and best of 5 adds some level of stability to that. This in mind, the typical end result is often a bracket of upsets ended by a relatively normal top 8 with 2-3 insurgent players few expected.
Will Kagaribi 5 follow that trend? It’s hard to say. As the biggest major in over a year in Kanto - often regarded as the strongest region in the world - Kagaribi 5 will either crystalize narratives or completely upend the metagame. It’s an event you’ll want to see.